Will Oil Prices Break Below Support As Iraqi Kurdistan Starts Exporting?
Crude Oil prices have been returning to $70 one too many times, which points to a bearish break below, with the help of exports from Iraqi Kurdistan.
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Global oil markets are closely watching developments in Iraqi Kurdistan, as the long-awaited resumption of crude oil exports could impact supply and price stability. Over the weekend, authorities in Iraqi Kurdistan reached an agreement with the federal oil ministry to restart shipments, signaling a potential resolution to a longstanding oil dispute.
Iraqi Kurdistan’s Oil Exports Set to Resume
The Iraq-Turkey pipeline is undergoing final inspections, with a decision on its operational status expected within 24 hours. This pipeline has been inactive since 2022 when the International Chamber of Commerce ruled against Kurdistan’s autonomous oil exports, favoring Iraq’s federal government.
According to Iraq’s Oil Ministry, the first phase of resumed exports will transfer 185,000 barrels per day (bpd) to Turkey, with a gradual increase to 400,000 bpd over time. However, Deputy Oil Minister Bassem Mohammed has stated that restoring full production capacity will take time.
Currently, Kurdistan’s oil production capacity stands at 300,000 bpd, with 185,000 bpd designated for exports while the remainder is used domestically.
Crude Oil Chart Daily – WTI at a Critical Support Level
Despite this potential increase in supply, WTI crude oil has repeatedly tested the $70 support level, with buyers stepping in to prevent a breakdown. Last week, a brief bullish rally followed comments from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who emphasized the need to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
However, the market’s upward momentum remains limited. While WTI crude temporarily broke above $73, the 100 SMA (red) acted as strong resistance, rejecting price advances and sending WTI back down to $70 by the end of the week.
If there is no significant bounce soon, a break below $70 could trigger further downside pressure, intensifying bearish sentiment in the oil market. With Kurdistan’s exports returning and global supply increasing, oil prices may face further challenges in holding key support levels.
US WTOI Crude Oil Live Chart
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