Forex Signals Brief December 3: Will JOLTS Jobs Reverse the Declining Trend?
Today we have the Swiss CPI inflation report in the European session, while the JOLTS job openings in the US session will highlight the day.
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During New York trading, the US dollar initially strengthened, but momentum reversed in the latter half of the session, erasing earlier gains. Political instability in France, marked by an impending no-confidence vote against Michel Barnier, drove the euro lower. The EUR/USD fell below 1.05, reaching a low of 1.0461 before recovering to the round figure as French bond spreads widened. The US dollar experienced volatility tied to discussions about BRICS and shifts in month-end flows.
Rising Treasury yields supported the dollar early in the day, but subsequent bond market rallies reversed these gains, particularly impacting the USD/JPY. This pair remains in a downward trend, falling to 149.09—the lowest level since October 20—after a 600-pip decline over two weeks. The release of remarks by Fed Governor Waller added to the dollar’s swings. Initially interpreted as dovish, Waller’s speech turned out to be balanced and data-driven, limiting its longer-term impact on USD strength.
Today’s Market Expectations
- Swiss Inflation
Switzerland’s inflation is projected to slow to 0.8% year-over-year, down from 0.6%. Despite declining inflation, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has adopted a cautious approach, cutting rates by only 25 basis points in its recent decisions. Market participants are pricing in a 72% chance of another 25 bps cut in December, with a smaller likelihood of a 50 bps move. SNB Chairman Schlegel has indicated that negative interest rates could return if necessary, signaling a readiness for more aggressive measures. - US JOLTS Job Openings
US job openings are forecasted at 7.480 million for the latest JOLTS report, slightly higher than the prior 7.443 million. While hiring and layoff rates remain steady, the quit rate has declined modestly. This indicates a challenging labor market where job security is high, but mobility is limited. Encouraging signs point to potential improvements in the labor market next year.
Yesterday US traders came back to the market after the bank holiday weekend, and the USD resumed the larger uptrend, which sent the Buck around 1 cent higher. However, it was just one move, while most of the day was quiet, with markets consolidating, so we only had two closed forex signals.
Gold Bounce Fails
After benefiting from last week’s Thanksgiving-driven liquidity conditions, gold turned sharply negative today, losing over $30 during the European session as USD strength returned. Comments from Donald Trump, threatening 100% tariffs on BRICS countries if they support an alternative currency to the US dollar, further bolstered the greenback. The dollar index rose 0.5%, its highest in over a week, making gold less attractive to foreign buyers. Spot GOLD traded near $2,621.86 per ounce, struggling under dollar pressure despite brief recoveries.
XAU/USD – Daily Chart
USD/CHF Bounces Off the 100 Daily SMA
The USD/CHF dropped 1.5 cents from its November high of 0.8957 last week. The decline halted at the 100-day SMA (red) on the daily chart, a key support level. The stochastic indicator points to oversold conditions, suggesting that the pullback has likely ended and that bullish momentum may resume soon.
USD/CHF – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Heads to 100K Again
Bitcoin faced selling pressure as the day drew to a close. After dipping close to $90,000 earlier this week, the cryptocurrency has shown signs of recovery during the quieter U.S. Thanksgiving trading period. With reduced market volatility, investor focus has shifted toward digital assets. BITCOIN is currently trading near $94,950, reflecting a 3% decline, or $3,110. Despite this setback, the overall trend remains positive. Bitcoin has rebounded from Tuesday’s low of $90,638 and continues to hover near the pivotal $100,000 level, sustaining investor confidence.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ethereum Climbs Above $3,500
ETHEREUM dipped below $3,000 momentarily before climbing back to $3,500, mirroring Bitcoin’s volatility. Ethereum’s recent $400 rally and recovery above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) demonstrate its technical resilience and underline increasing investor optimism in digital assets. While the market remains inherently volatile, recent developments suggest a more positive outlook for cryptocurrencies and a growing confidence in the sector’s long-term potential.
ETH/USD – Daily chart
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