USD to NZD Rate Sticks to 0.66 After Disappointing New Zealand Employment

The USD to NZD rate has been on a downtrend, however this week we saw a retrace higher as we headed into the US presidential elections. The New Zealand employment report was also released last night, which showed the unemployment rate jumping higher to 4.8% from 4.6% in Q2, however expectations were worse.

The NZD/USD pair has been attempting to recover this week after a sharp four-cent drop in late October pushed it below the important 0.60 level. This area has consistently acted as resistance, with several attempts to regain it blocked despite a weaker USD. Today’s New Zealand employment report signaled a negative outlook for commodity-linked currencies, especially the New Zealand dollar, suggesting potential further downside for the pair.

NZD/USD Chart H4 – MAs Keep Pushing the Highs Lower

On the H4 chart, the 100 SMA has provided solid resistance throughout the week’s reversal, adding downward pressure and preventing a break above 0.60. Continued weakness in the New Zealand economy, along with limited economic progress from China, would likely sustain the bearish trend.

New Zealand Employment Report

• Unemployment Rate: Q3 rose to 4.8% (expected 5.0%) from Q2’s 4.6%
• Participation Rate: Slightly down at 71.2% in Q3 vs. 71.5% expected, compared to Q2’s 71.1%
• Employment Change: Decreased by -0.5% (expected -0.4%) from a 0.4% increase in Q2
• Labour Cost Index (Quarterly): Declined by -0.6% (expected 0.7%), following 0.9% in Q2
• Labour Cost Index (YoY): Unchanged at 3.4% as expected, down from 3.6% in the prior report

New Zealand’s Q3 employment data shows a weakening labor market, with rising unemployment and a notable drop in labor costs. The participation rate remains stable, but lower-than-expected employment and wage growth signal slower economic momentum. This could heighten concerns around consumer spending and economic resilience heading into the final quarter.

NZD/USD Live Chart