EURUSD Returns to the 50 SMA at 1.08 after Higher German CPI

EURUSD has been trending down during October, with MAs pushing it lower, however buyers are threatening the 50 SMA with several attempts. Yesterday we saw a rejection and a 50 pip tumble after that, but the reversal higher back to the50 SMA was pretty quick, which indicated that it’s time for a stronger retrace higher in this pair after the 4.5 cent decline this month.

The EUR/USD pair recently dropped to the 1.0760s last week, continuing its downward trend throughout October. Following another rejection at the 50 SMA (yellow) on the H4 chart, it briefly dipped but quickly rebounded above 1.08 after the soft JOLTS job openings report. This report sparked renewed attempts to reverse the pair’s decline, signaling a potential bullish breakout and a higher retracement, although the moving averages are still acting as resistance and limiting upward momentum.

EUR/USD Chart H4 – The 50 SMA is Under Threat

In Europe, better-than-expected German PMI data for October showed resilience in both manufacturing and services sectors, with Germany’s GfK consumer climate reaching its highest point since April 2022. Meanwhile, the recent JOLTS data from the U.S. revealed a drop in job openings to 7.443 million for September, undercutting both the 7.99 million expected and the revised 7.861 million figure for August. This weaker-than-expected labor data has weighed on the USD, generating buying interest in the EUR/USD and sending it above 1.0800 during the North American session and signaling a potential softening in the U.S. labor market.

German September CPI Inflation Report

These inflation readings are notably above expectations, and they could influence adjustments in future national estimates. Currently, German annual inflation is projected at 1.8% for October, but with these elevated preliminary results, it may more accurately come in closer to 2.1%. This could signal ongoing inflationary pressures that the broader national reading may soon reflect.

EUR/USD Live Chart