US Elections Send Gold to New ATH, Despite Jump in US Consumer Confidence

The Gold price made another leg higher today after weak US JOLTS job opening data, reaching $2,771, with US presidential elections also helping. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence indicator showed a strong jump this month, after slowing inflation in the US and the FED starting to lower interest rates, but that’s not stopping Gold buyers from pushing higher toward $2,800 first and then $3,000.

Smaller moving averages such as the 20 SMA (gray) and the 50 SMA (yellow) have ben providing support for Gold on the H4 chart, which shows that the buying pressure is strong. The Gold price has just made a new record high as buyers keep pushing relentlessly, with XAU/USD now trading at $2,772. This means that Gold has climbed around 25% so far this year, after starting at around $2,000 in January.

Gold Chart H4 – MAs Continue to Keep XAU Supported

The strong increase in US consumer confidence in October, particularly in both the Present Situation and Expectations indices, signals growing optimism among consumers about the state of the economy. This uptick suggests that despite recent economic uncertainties, confidence in current conditions and future prospects is rebounding. The data could imply continued economic resilience, potentially influencing Federal Reserve outlooks on rate adjustments and future economic policy.

US October Conference Board Consumer Confidence

• US Consumer Confidence Index (October): Surged to 108.7 points, surpassing the expected 99.5.
  • Previous reading: Revised up to 99.2 from 98.7.
• Present Situation Index: Jumped to 138.0 from 124.3, indicating greater confidence in the current economy.
• Expectations Index: Rose to 89.1 from 81.7, reflecting increased optimism about future conditions.
• Implication: The higher consumer confidence points to resilience in the economy and a more positive near-term outlook.

This figure is less impressive than it appears at first glance, as it unexpectedly fell to 98.7 from the previously forecasted 104.0. Notably, the proportion of consumers who believed the economy was already in a recession and those anticipating one in the next 12 months reached their lowest levels since the question was first asked in July 2022.

While consumers’ assessments of their current financial situation remained stable, their outlook for the next six months reached a record high. This suggests genuine optimism, although these numbers are often heavily influenced by factors such as political developments and fuel prices.

Gold Live Chart