Forex Signals Brief October 28: A Week Full of Economic Releases to Trade

This week the economic calendar is full of important economic releases starting from tomorrow, while last week the forex calendar was light. Last week the USD continued the upside momentum in the first half, but retreated lower on Thursday, however by Friday the retreat was over and USD buyers came back.

The Bank of Canada delivered a 50 bps interest rate cut, taking the Overnight Rate to 3.75% from 5.25% previously, while the retail sales from Canada were also disappointing, which left the CAD soft the whole week. The Manufacturing and Services PMI reports showed a weakening economy in Europe and the UK, while in the US, both sectors showed further expansion in the activity, while Durable Goods Orders came above expectations as well.

This Week’s Market Expectations

Today the data release is light, but this week the economic calendar is full of events starting from tomorrow. We have the Bank of Japan meeting, the consumer inflation readings from many countries, as well as several employment reports from the US.

Upcoming Economic Events for the Week:

Tuesday

• Japan: Unemployment Rate
• United States: Job Openings (JOLTS), Consumer Confidence

Wednesday

• United Kingdom: UK Budget Release
• Australia: Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Germany: CPI
• Eurozone: Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
• United States: ADP Employment Report, Q3 GDP

Thursday

• Japan: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Decision
• Australia: Retail Sales
• China: PMIs
• Switzerland: Retail Sales
• France: CPI
• Eurozone: Flash CPI, Unemployment Rate
• Canada: GDP
• United States: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Jobless Claims, Employment Cost Index (ECI)

Friday

• Australia: Producer Price Index (PPI)
• China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI
• Switzerland: CPI, Manufacturing PMI
• United States: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), ISM Manufacturing PMI
• Canada: Manufacturing PMI

Last week the USD continued to make gains, besides the retreat on Thursday, and we remained long on the USD as well as Gold, which continued to make new record highs, which proved to be a good strategy once again. We opened 34 trading signals in total, closing the week with 24 winning forex signals and 9 losing trades.

Nothing Can Keep Gold Down

Early-week investment activity propelled gold to a new high of $2,758 last week. Gold is up over 30% this year, showing strong performance in 2024 despite a $50 dip on Wednesday, after which it stabilized above $2,700. With renewed upward momentum yesterday, gold (XAU) is anticipated to soon reach new all-time highs.

XAU/USD – H4 Chart

USD/JPY Remains Supported by MAs

In currency markets, USD buying accelerated in October, driving USD/JPY up by over 12 cents to 153. Key moving averages, notably the 50 and 20 SMAs on the H4 chart, maintained robust bullish momentum. Reacting to yen volatility, Japanese officials, including Finance Minister Kato, expressed concerns, and BOJ Governor Ueda made assertive comments aimed at supporting the yen, even going beyond traditional inflation targets. Profit-taking ahead of Japan’s upcoming elections caused a dip in USD/JPY last weekend, though the 20 SMA (gray) held steady, leading to a bullish reversal by week’s end.

USD/JPY – H4 Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Buyers Return, As They Push Toward $70K

BTC/USD – Daily chart

Ethereum Bounces Off the 50 Daily SMA

Similarly, Ethereum has experienced strong buying activity, with buyers pushing past the 100-day SMA to reach $2,700 in October. After a brief dip on Tuesday, Ethereum found support at the 50-day SMA and rebounded above $2,500.

ETH/USD – Daily chart