Top 5 Market Drivers This Week: U.S. Jobs Data, GDP Report, and Big Tech Earnings

This is going to be a big week for markets as we get a bunch of important economic data, big earnings and major political developments.

The October employment report, 3rd quarter GDP numbers and the Fed’s preferred inflation metric will all impact the Fed’s next move on rates.

Big Tech’s earnings – Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon – will be a big deal as they make up so much of the S&P 500.

And with the US presidential election and Middle East tensions heating up, everything will be important. Here’s what to watch.

1. Nonfarm Payrolls to Offer Labor Market Insights

This Friday’s jobs report will be watched closely with 111,000 expected for October. The slowdown is due to temporary disruptions, Boeing (NYSE) and Textron (NYSE) strikes and Hurricane Helene. Unemployment rate expected to remain 4.1%.

The Fed has already hinted at a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, but the jobs data could still matter. Along with nonfarm payrolls, Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and Thursday’s initial jobless claims will give us more labor market clarity.

• Expected Job Growth: 111,000 jobs in October
• Unemployment Rate Forecast: Unchanged at 4.1%
• Impact Factors: Strikes and weather disruptions

2. GDP and Inflation Data to Shape Fed’s Next Move

Wednesday’s preliminary Q3 GDP and Thursday’s personal income and spending report (which includes the core PCE price index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) are the big economic data points. Economists expect 3% GDP growth, same as Q2. This will be important for the Fed’s November meeting.

Also out this week are October’s consumer confidence, business sentiment and ISM Manufacturing Index. With the Fed in blackout, investors will look to these data for clues.

• GDP Forecast: 3% annual growth
• Key Inflation Measure: Core PCE index in the personal income report
• Market Relevance: Potential influence on Fed’s rate policy

3. Big Tech Earnings to Impact Broader Market Sentiment

Five of the big five—Alphabet (NASDAQ), Microsoft (NASDAQ), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ), Apple (NASDAQ), Amazon (NASDAQ)—report this week.

The “Magnificent Seven” have been the drivers of the market and together make up 23% of the S&P 500 so any reaction to their earnings will matter.

Tesla (NASDAQ) set the tone last week with an earnings beat and guidance on 2025 vehicle sales growth. Big Tech earnings are expected to show strong margins but analysts expect the gap between these giants and the rest of the S&P 500 to close in coming quarters.

• Reporting Schedule: Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon
• Market Influence: 23% weight in the S&P 500 index
• Investor Focus: Profit margins and future growth guidance

4. Election Uncertainty Fuels Market Volatility

The Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election is just around the corner and markets are getting more uncertain. Current polls show a tight race between Republican Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, while prediction markets have Trump as the favorite.

UBS Global Wealth Management is telling clients to get ready for more volatility as Election Day approaches and market sentiment remains fragile.

• Election Date: Nov. 5
• Key Contestants: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
• Market Sentiment: Heightened volatility expected

5. Oil Market Awaits Clarity Amid Middle East Tensions

Oil could fall when markets open as Israel’s weekend strikes on Iranian military targets missed critical oil infrastructure so energy supplies were not impacted. Last week, Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4% on Middle East tensions and the U.S. election.

Energy traders are also watching for China’s stimulus policies to see if they will boost oil demand. But analysts are cautious, saying more stimulus won’t make a big difference.

• Oil Price Drivers: Middle East tensions, U.S. election
• Recent Gains: Brent and WTI up 4% last week
• Outlook: Awaiting stimulus clarity from China

Conclusion

This week’s markets will be shaped by a convergence of crucial data releases, tech earnings, and political developments. Investors should remain vigilant as they navigate the uncertainty around labor data, economic growth, and high-stakes earnings reports, all set against a backdrop of geopolitical risk and U.S. election tension.