Election Betting: Trump Leads Harris by 30 Points, GOP Eyes Sweep Across U.S. Government

Just 7 days to go until Election Day 2024 and the betting markets are moving big for Donald Trump. Data from Polymarket shows Trump at 65%, up 30 on Kamala Harris 34.9%. The “Presidential Election Winner” market has seen $2.14 billion in volume so far.

Trump’s lead goes beyond the national race.

He’s up in 6 swing states: Arizona 74%, Georgia 73%, Nevada 66%, Pennsylvania 60%, Wisconsin 57%, Michigan 53%. Harris is favored to win the popular vote 59% but Trump’s leads in these states could be the difference maker.

• Key States: Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan.
• Popular Vote: Harris 59%
• Volume: “Presidential Election Winner” $2.14 billion on Polymarket

Betting Platforms show GOP in control of everything

Beyond the presidential race, bettors are getting more and more confident in a Republican sweep of the government. Polymarket shows GOP control of the executive branch, Senate and House. This is mirrored on other platforms too, with Kalshi and Covers.com also having Trump up on Harris. Kalshi has Trump 62%, Covers.com 65.2%

This shift in betting sentiment suggests bettors are expecting a GOP trifecta—control of the executive, Senate and House after Election Day.

• Republican Sweep: GOP to win executive, Senate and House.
• Platform Consensus: Trump up on Polymarket, Kalshi, Covers.com
• Broader Implications: Betting trends show strong Republican turnout across branches.

Betting Trends: Caution from 2016’s Clinton-Trump outcome

While betting markets are a good indicator of public sentiment, they’re not always right. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was up on most platforms right up until Election Day, with her odds 80-90% on the big platforms. Trump’s upset showed us that we should never put too much stock in betting data.

With just days to go, these odds are a speculative look, the race is far from certain. Trump and the GOP are up but as we’ve seen before, the betting markets can flip.

• Historical reminder: Clinton was up on Trump in 2016 and lost.
• Market insight: Betting odds reflect public opinion but are not predictions.
• Unpredictable race: Trump up but the outcome is uncertain.

Election Day is near, these numbers are a snapshot of public opinion, a potential change in the direction of the U.S. government. But as we’ve seen before, surprises can happen in this wild race.