U.S. Dollar Slides Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation

The U.S. dollar weakened against other major currencies in the Asian session on Monday amid growing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is all set to announce its first interest rate cut for more than four years on Wednesday, but the size of cut is shaping up to be a close call.

Recent U.S. inflation data has partly offset optimism the U.S. Fed will lower rates more aggressively, but the central bank is still expected to continue cutting rates over the next several months.

The Bank of England is expected to leave rates on hold at 5.00 percent on Thursday and investors would be watching for a decision over the pace of its bond sales.

The Bank of Japan meets on Friday and is widely expected to hold rates steady, but a majority of economists still expect an increase by year-end.

Meanwhile, Asian stocks made a cautious start to the week, with markets in mainland China, South Korea and Japan closed for holidays.

China is closed for Mid-Autumn Festival, South Korea is closed for Chuseok Thanksgiving Day, Malaysia is closed for Malaysia Day and Indonesia is closed for Prophet Muhammad’s birthday.

Growth worries returned to the fore after Chinese factory output, retail sales and investment numbers for August all missed expectations.

In the Asian trading today, the U.S. dollar fell to nearly a 14-month low of 139.95 against the yen, from Friday’s closing value of 140.82. The greenback may test support near the 139.00 region.

Against the euro and the pound, the greenback dropped to 10-day lows of 1.1105 and 1.3163 from last week’s closing quotes of 1.1076 and 1.3122, respectively. If the greenback extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 1.12 against the euro and 1.33 against the pound.

The greenback slipped to 0.8453 against the Swiss franc, from Friday’s closing value of 0.8489. On the downside, 0.82 is seen as the next support level for the greenback.

Against Australia, the New Zealand and the Canadian dollars, the greenback edged down to 0.6731, 0.6181 and 1.3566 from last week’s closing quotes of 0.6703, 0.6156 and 1.3585, respectively. The next possible downside targets for the greenback are seen around 0.68 against the aussie, 0.63 against the kiwi and 1.33 against the loonie.

Looking ahead, Eurozone external trade for July and labor cost for the second quarter are slated for release in the European session.

In the New York session, Canada manufacturing sales data for July, new motor vehicles sales data for July, U.S. New York Empire State manufacturing index for September and U.S. NOPA crush report are due to be released in the New York session.