Weekly Outlook, Mar 15-19: Top Economic Events to Watch This Week
Looking ahead into the coming week, the series of Retail Sales and Monetary Policy Statement, along with Employment Change, and CPI can
Arslan Butt•Saturday, March 13, 2021•4 min read
The broad-based U.S. dollar is going to end this week on the bullish track as U.S. yields managed to stop their earlier losses following their sharp drop from one-year highs. It is worth recalling that the U.S. dollar dropped across the board yesterday as U.S. Treasury yields fell after the continued rise since the beginning of this year. As of today, the U.S. Treasury yields had stopped falling, so those who failed to avail themselves the opportunity to buy the dollar when yields were rising saw the room again to buy it. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield recovered around 1.54% on the day after a three-day drop from a one-year high of 1.6250%.
Apart from this, the upticks in the U.S. dollar could also be associated with the downbeat market sentiment, which increased the safe-haven demand in the market and contributed to the dollar gains. Looking ahead into the coming week, the series of Retail Sales and Monetary Policy Statement, along with Employment Change, and CPI can drive plenty of headlines to keep the markets on the move. Across the ocean, the chatters surrounding the U.S. stimulus package and geopolitical tensions’ headlines will also be closely followed as they could play a key role in determining risk levels in the market.
Top Economic Events to Watch This Week
1) CNY Retail Sales – Monday, 02:00 GMT
This data is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, which measures retailed consumer goods’ total receipts. It shows the total consumer goods that the various industries supply to the households and social groups through multiple channels. However, the changes in Retail Sales are broadly followed as a leading indicator of consumer spending. Thus, the ‘Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is seen as bullish for the CNY; conversely, a low figure is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY.
Previous release
ACTUAL:4.6 %
DEV:-0.95
CONS:5.5 %
DATE:01/18/2021 02:00
2) US Retail Sales (MoM) – Tuesday, 12:30 GMT
This data released by the U.S. Census Bureau, which measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes show the rate of changes in such sales. However, the changes in Retail Sales are broadly followed as a leading indicator of consumer spending. Thus, the ‘Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is seen as bullish for the Greenback; conversely, a low figure is seen as negative (or bearish) for the U.S. dollar.Previous release
ACTUAL:5.3 %
DEV:5.82
CONS:1.1 %
DATE:02/17/2021 13:303) Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday, 18:00 GMT
i) Fed Interest Rate Decision – The nation’s Central Bank has an economic policy meeting, wherein board members take different measures, the most important being the interest rate that it will charge on loans and advances to commercial banks. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve Board of Governors meets at intervals of 5 to 8 weeks, in which they declare their latest decisions. In that way, the rate hike tends to underpin the USD currency, as it is seen as a sign of substantial inflation. Conversely, the rate cut is considered a sign of economic and inflationary woes, which tends to undermine the USD currency.Previous release
ACTUAL:0.25 %
DEV:0.00
CONS:0.25 %
DATE:01/27/2021 19:00ii) – FOMC Statement – Right after the Fed’s rate decision, the FOMC releases its statement about monetary policy. The statement tends to influence the volatility of USD and determine a short-term bullish or bearish trend. Therefore, a hawkish outlook is seen as positive or bullish for the USD currency; conversely, a dovish view is seen as negative or bearish for the USD currency.
4) Aussie Employment Change – Thursday, 0:30 GMT
i) Aussie Employment Change – This data is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which measures the number of employed people in Australia. In simple words, the increase in this indicator positively impacts consumer spending, which tends to boost economic growth. Hence, high figures are considered bullish for the AUD currency; conversely, low figures are seen as negative (or bearish) for the AUD currency.
Previous release
ACTUAL:29.1 K
DEV:-0.13
CONS:40 K
DATE:02/18/2021 00:30
ii) Unemployment Rate – This data is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which measures the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. However, high figures indicate a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. In that way, an increase leads to weakening in the Aussie economy. So, the figure’s decrease is seen as bullish sentiment for the AUD currency; conversely, a rise is considered negative or bearish for AUD currency.
Previous release
ACTUAL:6.4 %
DEV:-0.34
CONS:6.5 %
DATE:02/18/2021 00:30
5) BoE Interest Rate Decision – Thursday, 12:00 GMT
The Bank of England announces this decision. If the Bank of England is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the U.K.’s economy and raises the interest rates, it is understood to be bullish for the GBP currency. Conversely, if the BoE is dovish about the inflationary outlook of the U.K.’s economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate or cuts the interest rate, it is understood as bearish for the GBP currency.
Previous release
ACTUAL:0.1 %
DEV:0.00
CONS:0.1 %
DATE:02/04/2021 12:00
6) BOJ Monetary Policy Statement – Friday, Tentative
This statement is released by the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan. By communicating the committee’s vote outcome about interest rates and other policy measures and the economic conditions influencing their decision, the statement gives many hints about future monetary policy changes. Therefore, a hawkish outlook is seen as positive or bullish for the JPY currency; conversely, a dovish view is seen as negative or bearish for the JPY currencyii) BoJ Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of Japan announces this decision. If the Bank of Japan is hawkish about the Japanese economy’s inflationary outlook and raises the interest rates, it is understood as bullish for the JPY currency. Conversely, if the BoJ is dovish about the Japanese economy’s inflationary outlook and keeps the ongoing interest rate or cuts the interest rate, it is understood as bearish for the JPY currency.Previous release
ACTUAL:-0.1 %
DEV:0.00
CONS:-0.1 %
DATE:01/21/2021 03:00
Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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